According to the 2000 census, the population of the 8-county Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point metropolitan area was 1,251,500, an increase of 20,100, or 1.8 percent, annually since the 1990 census. Nearly three-fourths of the growth was the result of in-migration. Although Guilford County accounted for 37 percent of the absolute increase in population, Davie County, just west of Winston-Salem, was the fastest-growing county with a 25-percent increase.

Nonagricultural wage and salary employment in the metropolitan area totaled 648,700 for February 2002, a decrease of 9,000 jobs, or 1.4 percent, from February 2001. Significant job losses in retail trade and in manufacturing were accompanied by cutbacks in nearly every other major segment of the local economy, resulting in a substantially higher unemployment rate. The February 2002 unemployment rate of 6.1 percent was almost 2 percentage points higher than the rate observed 1 year ago and was the highest rate since the mid-1980s.

Manufacturing’s share of area employment declined over the past 10 years and now represents barely one-fifth of total employment. Furniture and textiles, once the dominant manufacturing industries, now have a much-reduced share of total manufacturing employment. During the past 24 months, layoffs and plant closings involving area textile companies have accelerated in response to the national recession and increasing competition from imports. Cutbacks were announced at 21 area textile operations accounting for 5,750 job losses; several of the major textile firms in the area have entered into bankruptcy proceedings.

Many observers believe that the local economy’s future depends on replacing traditional industries, such as furniture, apparel, and textiles, with new lines of business. Some foresee the location of the Federal Express hub at Piedmont Triad International Airport as the solution to structural deficiencies in the local economic base. The hub, scheduled to begin construction later this year, will eventually employ 1,500 workers, with additional jobs coming from nearby firms expected to take advantage of the hub’s distribution facilities.

The sales housing market in the metropolitan area has been mixed. Building permits for new single-family homes totaled 8,267 in the 12 months ending March 2002, up a modest 1.2 percent from the previous 12-month period. Most of the construction is taking place in Guilford and Forsyth Counties, where major cities are located. According to Multiple Listing Service data released by the North Carolina Association of REALTORS^®, existing home sales in the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point area were down 5.7 percent to 9,467 homes in 2001, and the median sales price in the metropolitan area was up 2.6 percent to $132,700 from 2000, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^®.

Although interest rates approaching record lows buoyed new home sales in 2001, local observers reported that the sales market in 2002 could be adversely affected by continued high levels of unemployment. Trends since September 2001 appear to confirm this scenario. For the 6 months ending March 2002, the annualized rate of new home construction declined by 5 percent, whereas unemployment increased to 6.1 percent during the period. The inventory of unsold homes in the city of Greensboro and the surrounding area also was relatively large at the end of March, and the sales price for existing homes was off 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2002 from last year.

In contrast to the trend in single-family production, construction of multifamily units has accelerated since September 2001. Building permits were issued for 2,345 multifamily units in the metropolitan area during the 12-month period ending February 2002, an increase of 75.4 percent from the previous 12-month period. Nearly 70 percent of total multifamily activity occurred within Guilford County. There are presently 1,390 new apartment units under construction and 1,132 proposed units in the area, a total far exceeding the 1,350 units absorbed on average during the past 5 years. The most active submarkets are southwest Greensboro, High Point, and southwest Winston-Salem.

Given typical levels of absorption in recent years, this level of new unit production is certain to result in substantially higher vacancy rates. The latest Apartment Market Report for the metropolitan area from Carolinas Real Data shows a vacancy rate of 10.8 percent as of March 2002, up from 8.3 percent in September 2001 and 8.0 percent in March 2001. The current March vacancy rate of approximately 11 percent is the highest such rate since the surveys began in the early 1990s.