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Re: AHS: Last Call for 2013 Module Suggestions

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From: Clifford Treese [clifford.treese@gmail.com]

My comments remain the same as in the past with respect to how the AHS views certain aspects of housing.

With the exception of concern for rentals, the Census and the AHS under-serves community associations: condominiums, cooperatives and planned communities:

  1. Housing cooperatives on a unit basis are seriously under-counted.
  2. Condominium housing units are under-counted.
  3. Planned community housing units are not counted at all.
  4. The entities (the community associations) themselves are not counted.

By my estimated, there are well over 300,000 residential community associations in the U.S. that contain over 20,000,000 housing units. A significant and growing part of ownership housing is being provided in an organizational framework.

Pasted next are my selected estimates of the size and impact of associations:

  1. Growth and Selected Metrics

    2. 1.8.1 Growth

    In 1970, there were perhaps 10,000 associations. The attached appendices give a more complete picture of association growth over the last 40 years. This increase will continue, in large part, because associations accommodate growth in ways that are consistent with smart growth initiatives¾they are predicated on density, they require attractive design for marketability, and they are organized to meet the fiscal sustainability necessary to support the privatization of infrastructure and municipal service obligations.

      1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
    No. of CAs 205,000 214,000 222,500 231,000 240,000 249,000 260,000
    No. of Units 16,400,00 17,120,000 17,800,000 18,480,000 19,200,000 19,920,000 20,800,000

     

      2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
    Number of Community Associations 286,000 295,700 300,800 305,400 309,600
    Number of Community Association Housing Units 23,100,000 23,800,000 24,100,000 24,400,000 24,800,000
    Number Living in Community Associations 57,000,000 58,800,000 59,500,000 60,100,000 62,000,000
    Number Living in Community Associations 57,000,000 58,800,000 59,500,000 60,100,000 62,000,000
    U. S. Total Population 300,900,000 302,500,000 305,500,000 308,500,000 308,475,000

    • Resource: U.S.Census, American Housing Survey, American Community Survey, Statistical Abstracts of U.S., Treese – private files with 2007 data estimated depending on current mortgage rates, general economic conditions and population trends including immigration.
      • Cooperatives: Housing cooperatives represent approximately 4-6% of all association units.
      • Condominiums: Condominium associations represent from 40-45% of all associations. Condominium associations, in the last 2-3 years, have definitely increased in acceptability and popularity.
      • Planned communities: Planned communities comprise the balance.

     

  2. Other Community Association Metrics
    1. Aggregate Value Home Values: According to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds Report, between the 2006 and the 1Q of 2010, household real estate values lost just over $6.4.0 trillion dollars (from $22,943.6 billion to $16,507.2 billion),or 28.1%. At the same time, owner’s equity as percentage of household real estate value went from 57.0% to 38.0 %, a drop of 19.0%. Association housing represents around 22-24% of U.S. housing.

    2. Median Sale Price: Historically, the sales price of condominium units had been around 10-15% less than single family homes. With the housing boom, however, sales prices reached parity with condominium units, actually selling for 5-10% more. Nevertheless, according to NAR between 2006 and July 2010, the median resale value of existing condominium units went from $221,900 to $176,800. In the same time period, the median resale value of an existing single family home went from $221,900 to $183,400.

      Existing condominium units now sell at a comparable price to existing single family homes. NAR cannot disaggregate data (condominium versus cooperative) and NAR’s single-family home data cannot distinguish if the home is in a planned community.

    3. Boards of Directors – Value of Service: In 2010, over 1.75 million volunteers served on the boards of directors with another 40,000 participating as committee members. There were over 310,000 Annual Association Meetings in 2010 with democratically conducted elections and another nearly 2,700,000 board of director meetings during the year in which owners debated and shaped their housing community’s operations and future. To assist the board, there are over 950,000 committee meetings during each fiscal year. The estimated value of these governance services is about $450,000,000. In general, about 44% of the eligible U.S. population volunteers at some point during a year – community association leaders volunteer continuously during a year.

    4. Annual Assessments: In 2010, these boards supervised the collection of over $41.5 billion in annual assessments and maintained investment accounts of another $36-37 billion for the long-term maintenance and replacement of commonly held property.

      • Resource: Treese, private files

    5. Reserves for Major Repairs and Replacements: During the course of any given recent year, associations probably spend in excess of $20.5 billion from accumulated reserves and operating funds for the repair, replacement and enhancement of commonly owned property. According to a recent survey by the National Association of Housing Cooperatives, the average cooperative (which is about 25 years older than the typical condominium) plans to spend over $1 million on repairs in the next five years.

      • Resource: Treese, private files

    6. Home Improvements: During 2008, homeowners of all kinds spent $165.9 billion on home improvements. Association’s owners spent $32 to $38 billion of this total.

    7. Partnership in Community: Community associations save local government from $2 billion to $4 billion annually because associations minimize the need for building and health code enforcement as well as having to perform such services on behalf of property owners and associations minimize fire, police and judicial enforcement and protection actions because they are better managed and maintained. and have their own dispute resolution processes.

      • Resource: Treese, private files

Thanks, in advance, for considering these comments.

Cliff Treese

 

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