Population Density: Some Facts and Some Predictions

Stephen Malpezzi
Wisconsin School of Business

This article addresses the following point of contention: “In 40 years, the average person will live closer to her neighbors and farther from the ground than she does today.”

When thinking about the typical American regarding density and building height, I predict—no way, and probably not. When thinking about people globally, I predict—no, and no.

How strong are my prior beliefs? Of the four predictions, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is winning a lottery jackpot and 10 is the sun rising tomorrow, my subjective confidence on each of them, in turn, is United States: 9, 6; global: 7, 8.

In this article I explain why I am more confident about my density predictions than my predictions about building height in the United States, although the reverse is true for my global predictions.