Exploring the Spatial Diffusion of Homicides in Mexican Municipalities Through Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

Miguel Flores
Amado Villarreal
Tecnológico de Monterrey

In this article, we explore the spatial dimension of violence in Mexico by investigating the existence of spatial diffusion patterns associated with the increase in homicides. We specifically use exploratory spatial data analysis, or ESDA, techniques during the 2005- through-2010 period to measure the extent to which Mexican municipalities have experienced an increase in violence levels that have diffused to contiguous municipalities. The findings indicate significant levels of spatial dependency leading to spatial clustering of high-incidence rates of homicides in specific regions of the country, with diffusion patterns of high levels of homicide rates to other nearby municipalities. Furthermore, it has been found that, during the period of analysis, municipalities that acted as contributors to the spread of high-incidence rates have not reduced their levels but are still experiencing high-incidence rates during the period of study.