In this paper the development and application of a cohort model of national housing consumption is described and the results of projections made by this innovative method are presented.

There emerges a consistent picture of the direct impact on housing of impending changes in the size and age structure of the population due to the progression of the large baby boom generation through the age structure. This pattern shows a peak in the rate of growth in all types of housing units at some time between the late 1970s and late 1980s, followed by a more or less rapid decline in the rate of growth through the end of the century.

The growth in occupancy of small, rented apartments will be the first to experience a downturn and will be reduced most as the population ages, and the demand for larger single-family owned units will turn down later and be reduced least. The most important finding in relation to the projections is that the time paths of growth in housing consumption under a range of reasonable assumptions are virtually parallel.

This report is part of the collection of scanned historical documents available to the public.