Montana finished 2002 with job gains in the fourth quarter pushing the annual average employment up 1.1 percent compared with 2001. Wyoming’s rate of growth declined in the fourth quarter of 2002 after a surprisingly strong late summer, resulting in an annual average just 0.9 percent ahead of the average for 2001. Wyoming and Montana were the only two Rocky Mountain States with more jobs in December 2002 than 1 year ago. In contrast, Colorado and Utah recorded losses by the year’s end. North Dakota’s average for the year was up only 0.2 percent, while South Dakota posted a 0.4-percent loss for the year.

Recently released population estimates as of July 2002 show widely divergent trends among the Rocky Mountain States. Despite a slowdown, Colorado remains among the 10 fastest growing States in the Nation, and Utah has recently joined this group. Although yielding its number-three ranking to Florida, Colorado’s 1.7-percent gain put it in sixth place. Utah’s 1.6-percent gain made it the 7th fastest growing State, moving up from 11th place in 2001. North Dakota was the only State in the region to post a population loss, and small increases in South Dakota and Montana put these three States among the slowest growing in the Nation. Wyoming’s growth rate jumped from a small decline in 2001 to a 1.0-percent gain in 2002. Concern about ongoing population losses in North Dakota has generated a new initiative from the State housing finance agency. The “roots initiative” will provide downpayment assistance or a half-point reduction in mortgage interest rate to a borrower who moves to North Dakota to take a job.

Montana remains relatively insulated from national economic woes, but most Rocky Mountain States face the year 2003 with trepidation. The pace of layoffs in the high-technology and telecommunications industries slowed in the second half of 2002, but United Airlines’ recent bankruptcy has raised concerns about more layoffs in 2003. At a minimum, renegotiated pay packages for airline employees will dampen personal income growth, particularly in Colorado. Delta has announced layoffs, which are expected to reduce jobs at its Salt Lake City hub.

Wyoming’s mining sector gave its economy a boost in 2002 and should continue to be a bright spot in the region. Nevertheless, this sector will be hard pressed to match 2002’s spectacular growth. State government job increases have propped up payrolls throughout the region, but with looming budget deficits in Colorado, Utah, and Montana, this growth cannot be sustained. Some layoffs have occurred and more are expected in the battle to balance State budgets across the region.

The timing and amounts of snowfall are critical to the tourism and agribusiness industries in the region and are anxiously being watched after last summer’s extreme drought. Although early season snowfall in Colorado and Utah helped push skier visits ahead of last year’s levels, total snowfall remains below average in most of the region, keeping winter tourists at home. Without a substantial increase in snowfall in early 2003, hopes for drought recovery will quickly fade. River guides and golf course operators remain apprehensive about the effects of a dry winter on summer tourism, but the greatest impact of a failure to replenish mountain reservoirs will fall on the region’s farmers and ranchers. A repeat of last year’s crop failures and depletion of cattle breeding stock could prove disastrous for this industry.

A belated correction in apartment construction in Colorado’s Front Range markets resulted in a 20-percent decline in multifamily permit activity for 2002. Multifamily permit activity was also down in South Dakota and Utah. The region’s single-family activity for 2002 was virtually unchanged from 2001. Significant increases in permit activity in North Dakota and Wyoming, along with moderate increases in Montana, South Dakota, and Utah, offset the reduction in activity in Colorado.

As of 2002’s third quarter, the annual rate of existing home sales declined in Colorado and Wyoming. Increases were registered in South Dakota, Montana, North Dakota, and Utah. OFHEO price index data for the third quarter of 2002 reveal that the doubledigit increases in home prices from 1999 through 2001 have given way to a more moderate increase of just over 4 percent. A similar but smaller trend in home price appreciation was evident in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah. Wyoming’s strong economy has pushed prices for 2002 up almost 7 percent compared with 3- to 4-percent increases in the previous 3 years.