Worst Case Housing Needs

Overview

Worst case housing needs is a long-standing measure of the extent of unmet needs for affordable rental housing of adequate quality, including public rental assistance. Since 1991, HUD has produced a regular report analyzing the current state and long-term trends of the worst case housing needs in the United States.

Households with worst case needs are defined as renter households with very low incomes (incomes at or below 50 percent of area median income) who do not receive government housing assistance, pay more than one-half of their income for rent, live in severely inadequate conditions, or both.

The 2023 report is the latest in the series.

Click here to see Housing Trends using data from HUD’s Worst Case Housing Needs Reports.

Worst Case Housing Needs Reports

The following is a list of HUD’s Worst Case Housing Needs reports, going back to the first report published in 1991.

Worst Case Housing Needs: 2023 Report to Congress (May 2023)

This Worst Case Housing Needs report is the nineteenth in a multi-decade series providing national data and analysis of critical housing problems facing very low-income renting families. Renter households with very low incomes who do not receive government housing assistance are defined as having worst case needs for adequate, affordable rental housing if they pay more than one-half of their income for rent, live in severely inadequate conditions, or both.
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Worst Case Housing Needs: 2023 Report to Congress - Executive Summary (August 2023)

This Executive Summary highlights the findings of the forthcoming Worst Case Housing Needs: 2023 Report to Congress. As noted in the Executive Summary, the Worst Case Housing Needs: 2023 Report to Congress primarily draws on data from the 2021 American Housing Survey (AHS). The report captures housing needs in mid-2021, about a year and a half after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated brief recession early in 2020.
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Worst Case Housing Needs: 2021 Report To Congress (July 2021)

Drawing on data from the 2019 American Housing Survey (AHS), this report found there were 7.77 million renter households with worst case needs in 2019, a substantial affordable housing problem although not significantly different from 2017 levels. The private market and public rental assistance programs together made available only 62 affordable units per 100 very low-income renters in 2019. The subsequent COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic recession that began early in 2020 is examined in a Special Addendum.
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Worst Case Housing Needs: 2019 Report To Congress (June 2020)

Using data from the 2017 AHS, this report found there were 7.7 million renter households with worst case needs in 2017, as the private market and public rental assistance programs together made available only 59 affordable units per 100 very low-income renters. Although rising incomes shrank the population of at-risk households, contributing to a 7 percent decline in the number of households experiencing worst case needs between 2015 and 2017, inadequate market supply and competition for affordable units continued to pose substantial challenges for very low-income renters.
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Worst Case Housing Needs: 2017 Report to Congress (August 2017)

This report used data from the 2015 AHS, which debuted a major redesign that included a new national and metropolitan area longitudinal sample. The AHS redesign made possible the first metropolitan-level estimates of worst case needs. The report found that benefits of the strengthening national economy were not adequately flowing to renter households at the lowest income levels, and severe housing problems were on the rise.
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Worst Case Housing Needs: 2015 Report to Congress (April 2015)

This report found that worst case housing needs decreased during the 2011 to 2013 period but persisted at high levels across demographic groups, household types, and regions. Substantial unmet needs for affordable rental housing remained even as economic conditions were improving. The unmet need for decent, safe, and affordable rental housing continued to outpace the ability of federal, state, and local governments to supply housing assistance. (See also the Preview Of 2015 Worst Case Housing Needs.)
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Worst Case Housing Needs 2011: Report to Congress (August 2013)

This report found that the homeownership crisis and Great Recession of 2007-2009 were followed by dramatic increases in worst case housing needs during the 2009 to 2011 period that cut across demographic groups, household types, and regions. This rise in hardship among renters was due to substantial increases in rental housing demand and weakening incomes that increased competition for already-scarce affordable units. (See also the Worst Case Housing Needs 2011: Report to Congress - Summary.)
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Worst Case Housing Needs 2009: A Report to Congress (February 2011)

This report found that worst case needs rose more sharply between the 2007 and 2009 AHS than in any previous 2-year period since at least 1985. During this 2007 to 2009 period, the number of renters experiencing worst case needs jumped by more than 20 percent, from 5.91 to 7.10 million.(See also the Worst Case Housing Needs of People with Disabilities - Supplemental Findings of the Worst Case Housing Needs 2009: Report to Congress, March 2011.)
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Worst Case Housing Needs 2007: Report to Congress

Worst Case Housing Needs 2007: A Report to Congress (May 2010)

This report showed that the number of worst case needs households remained effectively flat between 2005 and 2007, with levels still 18 percent higher than in 2000. Worst case needs remained an equal opportunity problem, with significant incidence across races, family types, geographic regions, and boundaries of cities, suburbs, and rural areas. For the very lowest income groups, there was an insufficient and shrinking supply of affordable rental housing. Moreover, even though there were sufficient affordable units on a national basis for very low-income renters, many of the lower rent units were occupied by renters with higher incomes. This left many of the very low-income renters unable to find affordable housing and forced to take on greater burdens in higher rent units.
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Housing Needs of Persons With Disabilities: Supplemental Findings to the Affordable Housing Needs 2005 Report (February 2008)

This report supplemented the Affordable Housing Needs 2005 report, and it provided additional analysis and findings about such needs among households with disabilities. The findings in this supplement indicated that a higher proportion of the 5.99 million households with worst case needs in 2005 included persons with disabilities than previously estimated.
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Affordable Housing Needs 2005: Report to Congress (May 2007)

This report found that the number of households with worst case housing needs in 2005 was 5.99 million, a statistically significant increase of 817,000 households (16 percent) from the 5.18 million in 2003. The proportion of American households that had worst case needs in 2005 was 5.50 percent, up from 4.89 percent in 2003.
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Affordable Housing Needs: A Report to Congress on the Significant Need for Housing, Annual Compilation of a Worst Case Housing Needs Survey (December 2005)

This report found that, in 2003, 5.18 million very-low-income households in the United States had worst case needs. Between 2001 and 2003, there was a small increase in the number of households with worst case needs, but this difference was not statistically significant.
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Trends in Worst Case Needs for Housing, 1978 - 1999: A Report to Congress on Worst Case Housing Need, Plus Update on Worst Case Needs in 2001 (December 2003)

After having increased by one-fifth over the previous 10 years, between 1997 and 1999 the number of U.S. households with worst case needs for rental assistance fell significantly, by at least 8 percent, to 4.86 million. This reduction in worst case needs resulted from increases in income among very-low-income renters, but not from increases in the number of rental units affordable to them. Instead, the trend of decline in the number of rental units affordable to extremely-low-income households accelerated between 1997 and 1999.
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A Report on Worst Case Housing Needs in 1999: New Opportunity Amid Continuing Challenges, Executive Summary (January 2001)

This report documented a significant decrease—of at least 440,000, or 8 percent—in the number of renter households with worst case housing needs between 1997 and 1999. This welcome reversal of a ten-year trend of increasing worst case needs provided strong evidence of the effectiveness of the nation's economic and housing policies in helping the very lowest income households.
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Rental Housing Assistance -- The Worsening Crisis: A Report to Congress on Worst Case Housing Needs (March 2000)

This report showed that despite a growing economy, worst case housing needs continued to increase. Worst case housing needs reached an all-time high of 5.4 million households. There were 600,000 more households with worst case housing needs than there were in 1991—a rate of increase that was almost twice as fast as overall household growth.
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Rental Housing Assistance -- The Crisis Continues: The 1997 Report to Congress on Worst Case Housing Needs (April 1998)

This report found that despite robust economic growth between 1993 and 1995, the number of very low-income Americans with worst case housing needs remained at an all-time high of 5.3 million. The stock of rental housing affordable to the lowest income families was shrinking, and Congress had eliminated funding for new rental assistance. In the 1990s, worst case needs increased the fastest among working families, and one-third of households with worst case needs lived in the suburbs. (Building on The Crisis Continues, see also Waiting In Vain: An Update on America's Rental Housing Crisis, March 1999.)
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Rental Assistance at a Crossroads: A Report to Congress on Worst Case Housing Needs, 1996

Rental Assistance at a Crossroads: A Report to Congress on Worst Case Housing Needs (March 1996)

This report showed that the number of very-low-income renter households with the most serious housing needs—5.3 million—was at an all-time high and continued to grow through both economic recession and recovery. Worst case housing needs were concentrated at the lowest income levels, and over ¾ of households with worst case needs had incomes below 30 percent of area median income. The number of units affordable to those households without rental assistance continued to shrink; despite large and growing demand, private housing markets were not responding to the acute needs of the lowest income renters by producing units affordable for them.
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Worst Case Needs for Housing Assistance in the United States in 1990 and 1991: A Report to Congress (June 1994)

This report found that, in addition to the homeless who qualify as having worst case needs, 5.3 million of the Nation's very low-income rental households had priority housing problems in 1991. Between 1989 and 1991, the number of households with worst case needs had increased by 385,000, rising from 38 percent to 40 percent of all very low-income renters. Most of these families reported severe rent burden as their only housing problem. Families with children, Hispanics, and the disabled all had particularly high, and increasing, levels of unmet housing needs. Renters with worst case needs comprised 6 percent of all U.S. households and over 5 percent of the population and included 8 percent of the country's children.
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The Location of Worst Case Needs in the Late 1980s: A Report to Congress (December 1992)

In the late 1980s, some 2.8 million very low-income renter households living in the 44 large metropolitan areas surveyed by the AHS between 1987 and 1990 had "worst case" housing needs.
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Priority Housing Problems And "Worst Case" Needs In 1989 (June 1991)

The first of its kind, this Worst Case Needs report found that 3.6 million elderly or family very-low-income renter households had priority "worst case" housing problems.
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Related Publications

American Housing Survey: A Measure of (Poor) Housing Quality (March 2013)

This report develops a Poor Quality Index (PQI) that measures the level of physical deficiencies in American Housing Survey (AHS) sample housing units. The AHS already contains a measure of housing adequacy, but adequacy is a narrower concept than quality. For some research purposes, a measure that uses all the AHS information on housing deficiencies may be more useful. Compared with the AHS measure, the PQI recognizes a broader range of deficiencies and has greater stability on the problem side between surveys. The goal is not to replace the AHS measure but to give researchers an alternative.
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Reducing Worst Case Housing Needs With Assisted Housing, Cityscape, Kirk McClure (2012)

This research note seeks to answer this question: When units of assisted housing are added to a metropolitan market, is there a commensurate reduction in the number of households with worst case housing needs (WCN)?
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Investigating Very High Rent Burdens Among Renters in the American Housing Survey (August 2010)

This research examines the demographic characteristics of renter households with high rent burdens, the extent to which high housing costs or low incomes cause burdens, the persistence of burdens, and the comparability of AHS estimates with other data sources.
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Trends in Housing Costs: 1985–2005 and the 30-Percent-of-Income Standard (June 2008)

This study draws on AHS data to examine two issues related to housing costs: What factors account for the changes in housing costs relative to income from 1985 to 2005? Is the 30-percent standard still appropriate for assessing housing affordability? Part 1 of this report examines trends in the components of housing costs, including data and methodology issues and trends in housing costs for owners with mortgages, owners without mortgages, and renters. Part 2 looks at the adequacy of the 30-percent-of-income standard and looks for an alternative way to evaluate the adequacy of the standard.
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Measuring Overcrowding in Housing (September 2007)

This study explores traditional and alternative measures of overcrowding and examines how overcrowding affects different segments of the population. The overcrowding measures of Persons-Per-Room, Persons-Per-Bedroom, Unit Square Footage-Per-Person, and Persons-Per-Room by Unit Square Footage-Per-Person were analyzed and contrasted with the use of American Housing Survey national data from 1985 and 2005.
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Assessment of American Indian Needs and Programs, Final Report (May 1996)

Published in 1996, this report documents the severe housing needs of the American Indian and Alaska Native population and calls for an increase in public and private investment to alleviate these conditions.
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Housing Problems and Needs of Native Hawaiians (March 1996)

The primary objectives of this study were to assess the housing problems and needs of Native Hawaiians in light of the housing conditions and market circumstances that exist in Hawaii. This study of Native Hawaiian housing needs complements the report Assessment of American Indian Housing Needs and Programs.
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Housing Problems and Needs of American Indians and Alaska Natives (May 1996)

This report was part of the Assessment of American Indian Housing Needs and Programs.
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