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AHS and Other Housing Surveys -- Update on Planning

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We have prepared the following in response to inquiries you have made concerning the plans for the AHS and other surveys.  

The 2006 research budget appropriated for the Office of Policy Development and Research is about 21 percent less than the amount enacted for FY 2005.  This was a major reduction and required PD&R to shift priorities and the allocation of our appropriations.  

The Housing Surveys account for over half of the PD&R outlays and as a result the surveys have borne the brunt of the reductions.  As prudent planners we must also consider the consequences of future appropriations remaining in that low range. There is an alternative budget future – one that would see a return to funding levels more like what we have experienced in the past – but we will need to see how and when the FY 2007 appropriations process will conclude.

We are trying to plan for both contingencies.

Surveys costs are driven by the number of surveys, the sample sizes of the surveys and the frequency of the surveys.  PD&R funds are used to conduct the following surveys:

·        American Housing Survey
·        Survey of Market Absorption of New Apartments
·        Manufactured Homes Placement Survey
·        Survey of Construction –New Home Sales and Completions.

We have had to make immediate decisions for what remains of FY 2006.  For the Market Absorption and Manufactured Homes Placements, we will fund the surveys through the end of calendar year 2007 data collection.  During this year, we will reach out to the user community to assess the consequences of discontinuing the survey after calendar year 2007.  We could not make any changes to the Survey of Construction since that survey is funded jointly by direct appropriations to the Census Bureau and funding from HUD, and the survey publishes two Principal Federal Economic Indicators.

Changes to the AHS can involve the number of surveys, the sample sizes, and frequency.  We have been doing a National survey of about 60,000 housing units every odd-numbered year and 47 metro surveys of about 4,500 housing units each over a six-year cycle.

In order to stay within the lower level of appropriations we are planning the following changes that are focused on the metro surveys. First, we will conserve resources by conducting metro surveys in the same years as the National survey is conducted in order to reduce the overhead involved in putting a survey into the field. Second, we will reduce the number of metros from 47 to between 25 and 30. Third, we will change the frequency of the 6 larger metros to once every six years as is done with the other 41 surveys.  Fourth, we will reduce the metro sample sizes from the 4,500 to about 2,500. We have not finalized the plans since HUD and Census are working to reduce costs and trying to squeeze a few more metro areas per cycle out of the budget.  

If the FY 2007 appropriations restore PD&R to its previous funding levels, we will seek to restore some of the metro survey realignments – more metros and larger metro sample sizes – and to continue funding the Market Absorption and Manufactured Homes Placements.  Of course, the degree to timing of these restorations will depend on the timing of the FY 2007 appropriations process.  The later the passage, the less we will be able to restore for 2007 data collection.