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The Role of Geographic Proximity And Industrial Structure In Metropolitan Area Business Cycles

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Report Acceptance Date: September 2003 (20 pages)

Posted Date: June 08, 2010



This paper constructs and analyzes economic cycle indicators (CEI) at the MSA level. The theoretical advantage of MSA level indexes is that they reflect labor market areas. Given the lack of quarterly economic time series at the MSA level, the authors construct a new variable, the EPI (export price index). The EPI is an index number constructed to measure changes in the prices of goods produced by major industries located in metropolitan areas. Using non-agricultural employment and the EPI as MSA-specific variables, they are able to estimate following a Stock/Watson type single factor models. The authors find that, for larger states, with multiple MSAs, there is substantial variation in the amplitude and timing of cycles across MSAs. Further tests group MSAs within states by applying cluster analysis to the state series for the MSAs within a state. The groupings are interesting for two reasons. First, they confirm the differences observed within states. Secondly, and perhaps most important, the groupings of cyclically similar MSAs are not always based on geographic proximity as might be expected. It appears that industrial similarity of the MSA economies is also important for cyclical performance.


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