NSP2 Data and Methodology

Dataset/NSP2 Data and Methodology

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These data are the same as the data presented in the NSP2 mapping tool. They provide the basis for a determination of geographic needs, both for the threshold requirement and for scoring factor 1 for NSP2 applicants (see the NSP2 NOFA). This information is available, and may be useful, for NSP1 grantees but they are not required to use it. These scores are slightly different than the NSP1 risk scores HUD provided in October 2008.

The estimated rate of foreclosure problems do not reflect "real" numbers of foreclosures but rather reflect neighborhood characteristics that are estimated to have a high level of risk for foreclosure. HUD has developed these foreclosure estimates and foreclosure risk scores for Census tracts based on:

• whether or not loans are high cost or highly leveraged in the census tract (see https://www.huduser.gov/periodicals/ushmc/summer08/summary.pdf),
• change in home values in the metropolitan area (or non-metropolitan portion of the state),
• the unemployment rate for the county in 2008, and
• change in unemployment in the county between 2007 and 2008.

These factors are extremely good predictors of foreclosure problems and are used to give each Census tract a foreclosure risk score between 1 and 20. The model is adjusted at the state level to match the rate of total foreclosure starts in 2007 and 2008 in combination with loans 90 day delinquent at the fourth quarter of 2008 from the Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey. Each tract also receives an abandonment risk score that incorporates Census tract vacancy data from USPS, and also uses the 1 to 20 scale.

Census Tract level data with the scores and the key variables used to estimate the scores are available for download by state or the entire United States. Please read the methodology to understand more on how these data reflect "estimates" of foreclosure problems. Also note that the foreclosure problem estimated here are of "foreclosure starts". Data from HOPE NOW indicate that fewer than half of loans that start the foreclosure process complete it. Many borrowers become current, have their loans modified, sell their home in a short-sale, and other outcomes. Thus, the estimates here are assumed to overstate the actual number of homes that would become Real Estate Owned. The names of the variables in the file are:

• Geoid = Census Tract (State,County,Tract)
• sta = State Postal Code
• cntyname = County Name
• nforeclose = Foreclosure Risk Score
• nvacancy = Vacancy and Foreclosure Risk Score
• fordq_num = Estimated number of mortgages to start foreclosure process or be seriously delinquent in past 2 years
• fordq_rate = Estimated percent of mortgages to start foreclosure process or be seriously delinquent in past 2 years
• vac_rate = Estimated percent of all addresses in Census Tract to be vacant 90 days or longer
• num_mort_tract = Estimated number of mortgages in Tract (the greater of Census 2000 mortgages or total HMDA mortgages between 2004 and 2007)
• pct_lchl = Percent of HMDA mortgage made 2004 to 2007 that are low-cost and high-leverage in Census Tract
• pct_hcll = Percent of HMDA mortgage made 2004 to 2007 that are high-cost and low-leverage in Census Tract
• pct_hchl = Percent of HMDA mortgage made 2004 to 2007 that are high-cost and high-leverage in Census Tract
• ofheo_price_change = Price change between peak value and December 2008 value in Metropolitan Area (or non-metropolitan balance)
• pct_unem_2008 = Average unemployment rate in county in 2008
• unem_ch0708 = Change in average unemeployment rate in county between 2007 and 2008

If you have questions about how to download the data, please contact Linda.M.Defilippo@hud.gov. If you have questions about the NSP1 program, please send your question to NSP-Questions@hud.gov. If you have questions about NSP2, NSP2_Help@hud.gov.