The Future of the Affluent American City

Joel Kotkin
Chapman University

Wendell Cox
Demographia

This article addresses the following point of contention: “In 40 years, the average person will live closer to her neighbors and farther from the ground than she does today.”

In 40 years most Americans will likely not live closer to their neighbors and farther from the ground than they do today, at least not materially so. American cities (which are all areas outside rural areas) will continue to disperse, as they did in the decade of the 2000s, when nearly 95 percent of major metropolitan growth was more than 10 miles from downtown areas (Cox, 2012c). Even the share of the Millennial generation (young adults ages 18 to 31) living in lower density areas increased (Kotkin, 2013b) (both contrary to popular lore and refuted by reality).